This is going to be a huge problem. Scientists predict and have been giving out alert signals when the virus surfaced at Asia that this is to be treated seriously as uncontrolled spreading can make it into a pandemic.
Like the distant rumbling of a storm on the horizon, the television images of children’s’ funerals in eastern Turkey have send a shudder across Europe.
At least 15 people have been diagnosed with the deadly H5N1 strain of avian flu across Turkey and three children in Dogubeyazit have succumbed, two of them confirmed flu cases.
As devastating as the outbreak in Turkey is, it is providing invaluable information for those scientists working with the leading medical centres on the planet desperately trying to outwit the virus.
Samples obtained from Turkish victims and analysed at the National Institute of Medical Research in London show that H5N1 has undergone a slight mutation which makes it more likely to attach to human cells.
The doctors who have seen at first hand the effects of bird flu are themselves shaken. In chickens, H5NI seems to spread to all internal organs, but in humans it appears to devastate the lungs in particular. Researchers at the University of Hong Kong have found that a victim’s own immune system may be part of the problem. It reacts to the virus with a flood of chemical messengers that draw white-blood cells into the lungs, where they trigger a massive inflammatory reaction.
Although the flu has so far shown no great ability to pass between humans, a worldwide pandemic is seen by experts as inevitable. A pandemic born out of avian flu will be one of the great levellers of our time. The last great flu pandemic, the Spanish flu that followed the end of the first world war, killed 50 million people across the world.
Western governmnets have hastily convened meetings to decide on protective measures. Drug companies are developing the anti-viral vaccines and stock piling them as this will be armour in the first line of defense against a pandemic. Public fears will have to be calmed and life will have to go on "business as usual" while the scientists nervously watch for mutuations and spreading of the virus. So this time it is man against an unseen enemy which can strike anytime with deadly consequences.
1 comment:
The following information about Avian Flu is both important and disturbing.
Rick Koza, Canada
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>Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 23:04:06 -0800
> To: Rick Koza
> From: "Henry I. Miller"
> Subject: Re: Interesting thoughts on bird flu
" Fascinating -- and bad news -- if it's confirmed;
Tamiflu would be in even shorter supply if we have to raise the dose significantly.
> I haven't seen those data anywhere else."
> Thanks for sending.
> Henry Miller
> Henry I. Miller, M.D.
> The Hoover Institution
> Stanford University
> Stanford, CA 94305-6010 USA
"Dr. Miller is a director of Consumer Alert, a national
consumer advocacy organization; a director of the
American Council on Science and Health; an Adjunct
Scholar at the Competitive Enterprise Institute; and a
scientific advisor to the George C. Marshall Institute
and former FDA consultant."
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http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12220501/H5N1_Tamiflu_Resistance_Mutants.html
"Tamiflu was used in vivo at a tiger zoo in Thailand
last year. Initially a small number of tigers were
infected with H5N1. Tamiflu was used to treat the
symptomatic tigers and was used prophetically to
prevent spread. These efforts were not successful
and all exposed tigers (147) died or were
euthanized.
Mice were used in additional in vivo tests of
Tamiflu. Although mice were treated with 20X the
prophylactic dose prior to infection, 50% of the mice died after
5 days of treatment (the FDA approved protocol).
Extending treatment to 8 days reduced the death
rate to 20%. The higher dose was used because of differences in drug metabolism, but the above data indicated that even 20X the approved dose was
sub-optimal.
Thus, the above data indicate the FDA approved prophylactic or treatment dose for Tamiflu is sub-optimal for H5N1 infections. Use of Tamiflu at sub-optimal levels can give rise to resistant
H5N1." (Article abbreviated)
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Oseltamivir Resistance — Disabling Our Influenza Defenses
Dr. Moscona is a professor in the Departments of Pediatrics and Microbiology and Immunology at Weill Medical College of Cornell University, New York(Dec 22/05).
"The study by de Jong et al. confirms that oseltamivir-resistant H5N1 virus is now a reality. ... This frightening report should inspire us to devise pandemic strategies that do not favor the development of oseltamivir-resistant strains. Improper use of personal stockpiles of oseltamivir may promote resistance, thereby lessening the usefulness of our frontline defense against influenza, and should be strongly discouraged."
An interview with Dr. Moscona can be heard at
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/353/25/2633
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